DB:41G1

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Greggs plc operates as a bakery food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 10.5% per year

Earnings grew by 25.1% over the past year

Pays a high and reliable dividend of 1.52%

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for 41G1 from our risk checks.


Snowflake Analysis

Outstanding track record established dividend payer.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Greggs's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: 41G1 has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

8.4%

41G1

-6.9%

DE Hospitality

0.1%

DE Market


1 Year Return

58.2%

41G1

2.7%

DE Hospitality

14.1%

DE Market

Return vs Industry: 41G1 exceeded the German Hospitality industry which returned 11% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 41G1 exceeded the German Market which returned 15% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

41G1IndustryMarket
7 Day8.4%-6.9%0.1%
30 Day2.2%0.01%0.2%
90 Day21.1%-11.6%3.3%
1 Year64.1%58.2%7.2%2.7%17.6%14.1%
3 Yearn/a-9.0%-21.4%14.8%4.8%
5 Yearn/a-10.7%-29.6%22.2%5.4%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Greggs's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is Greggs undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

31.44x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: 41G1 (€27.72) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€26.46)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 41G1 is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: 41G1 is poor value based on its PE Ratio (31.1x) compared to the Hospitality industry average (23.8x).

PE vs Market: 41G1 is poor value based on its PE Ratio (31.1x) compared to the German market (21.1x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 41G1 is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (3x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: 41G1 is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (7x) compared to the DE Hospitality industry average (2.3x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Greggs forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

10.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 41G1's forecast earnings growth (10.5% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: 41G1's earnings (10.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the German market (13.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 41G1's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 41G1's revenue (5.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the German market (5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 41G1's revenue (5.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 41G1's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (24.6%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Greggs performed over the past 5 years?

12.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 41G1 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 41G1's current net profit margins (6.9%) are higher than last year (6.2%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 41G1's earnings have grown by 12.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 41G1's earnings growth over the past year (25.1%) exceeds its 5-year average (12.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 41G1 earnings growth over the past year (25.1%) exceeded the Hospitality industry -36.8%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: 41G1's Return on Equity (22.6%) is considered high.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Greggs's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 41G1's short term assets (£131.6M) do not cover its short term liabilities (£178.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: 41G1's short term assets (£131.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities (£246.3M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 41G1 is debt free.

Reducing Debt: 41G1 has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 41G1 has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: 41G1 has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: 41G1 has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: Insufficient data to determine if 41G1's debt is covered by short term assets.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Greggs's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

1.51%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company1.5%marketbottom25%1.3%markettop25%3.6%industryaverage5.3%forecastin3Years2.3%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: 41G1's dividend (1.52%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.31%).

High Dividend: 41G1's dividend (1.52%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (3.59%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 41G1's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 41G1's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (49%), 41G1's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: 41G1's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (56.3% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

8.5yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Roger Whiteside (61yo)

7yrs

Tenure

UK£1,503,441

Compensation

Mr. Roger Whiteside, OBE, has been the Chief Executive Officer of Greggs plc since February 4, 2013. Mr. Whiteside served as the Chief Executive Officer of Punch Taverns plc from August 2011 to February 1, ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Roger's total compensation ($USD1.96M) is about average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD2.02M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Roger's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Roger Whiteside
CEO & Director7yrsUK£1.50m0.15% £4.3m
Richard Hutton
Finance Director & Executive Director13.9yrsUK£722.44k0.089% £2.5m
Jonathan Jowett
General Counsel & Company Secretary9.7yrsno datano data
Tony Rowson
Head of Retail7.3yrsno datano data
Emma Walton
Head of People0yrsno datano data
Roisin Currie
Retail & People Director0yrsno datano data

8.5yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: 41G1's management team is seasoned and experienced (8.5 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Roger Whiteside
CEO & Director7yrsUK£1.50m0.15% £4.3m
Richard Hutton
Finance Director & Executive Director13.9yrsUK£722.44k0.089% £2.5m
Ian Durant
Independent Chairman6.8yrsUK£167.82k0.012% £333.0k
Peter McPhillips
Independent Non-Executive Director5.9yrsUK£44.64k0.00099% £28.4k
Sandra Turner
Senior Independent Director5.8yrsUK£51.28k0.00099% £28.4k
Helena Ganczakowski
Independent Non-Executive Director6.1yrsUK£44.64k0.0011% £31.2k
Kate Ferry
Independent Non-Executive Director0.7yrsno datano data

6.1yrs

Average Tenure

60yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: 41G1's board of directors are considered experienced (6.1 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Greggs plc's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Greggs plc
  • Ticker: 41G1
  • Exchange: DB
  • Founded: 1939
  • Industry: Restaurants
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Market Cap: UK£2.384b
  • Listing Market Cap: UK£2.864b
  • Shares outstanding: 100.60m
  • Website: https://corporate.greggs.co.uk

Number of Employees


Location

  • Greggs plc
  • Greggs House
  • Quorum Business Park
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Tyne and Wear
  • NE12 8BU
  • United Kingdom

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
GRGLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPJan 1992
GGGS.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDJan 1992
GRGLBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPJan 1992
41G1DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURJan 1992

Biography

Greggs plc operates as a bakery food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh and frozen bakery products, sandwiches, drinks, snacks, small cakes and muffins, breakfast products, and sweet bakery treats, as well as porridges, salads, and soups. The company sells its products through its shops in travel, leisure, and work-centered catchments; and franchised stores in motorway service stations and petrol forecourts. It is also involved in the property holding activities; and provision of trustees services. As of December 30, 2017, the company operated 1,854 shops, as well as had 202 franchised shops. Greggs plc was founded in 1939 and is based in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/18 23:30
End of Day Share Price2020/02/18 00:00
Earnings2019/06/29
Annual Earnings2018/12/29


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.