HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.1% to €7.02 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues were in line with expectations, at €1.6b, while statutory losses ballooned to €0.32 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 13 analysts covering HelloFresh is for revenues of €6.84b in 2026. This implies a perceptible 2.6% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with HelloFresh forecast to report a statutory profit of €0.57 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €6.84b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.52 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on HelloFresh's earnings potential following these results.

View our latest analysis for HelloFresh

The consensus price target was unchanged at €10.88, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values HelloFresh at €18.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €7.80. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.1% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.3% per year. It's pretty clear that HelloFresh's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around HelloFresh's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that HelloFresh's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €10.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for HelloFresh going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for HelloFresh you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.