Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Metro AG (ETR:B4B) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Metro
What Is Metro's Net Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Metro had €3.98b of debt, up from €3.79b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had €666.0m in cash, and so its net debt is €3.31b.
How Healthy Is Metro's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Metro had liabilities of €6.55b falling due within a year, and liabilities of €3.31b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had €666.0m in cash and €840.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €8.36b.
This deficit casts a shadow over the €1.71b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Metro would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Metro can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
In the last year Metro's revenue was pretty flat, and it made a negative EBIT. While that's not too bad, we'd prefer see growth.
Caveat Emptor
Importantly, Metro had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Indeed, it lost a very considerable €242m at the EBIT level. If you consider the significant liabilities mentioned above, we are extremely wary of this investment. Of course, it may be able to improve its situation with a bit of luck and good execution. But we think that is unlikely since it is low on liquid assets, and made a loss of €198m in the last year. So while it's not wise to assume the company will fail, we do think it's risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Metro .
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About XTRA:B4B
Metro
Operates as a food wholesale company in Germany and internationally.
Fair value with moderate growth potential.
