Canada Goose Holdings Inc.

DB:1GC Stock Report

Market Cap: €864.2m

Canada Goose Holdings Valuation

Is 1GC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1GC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1GC (€8.97) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€2.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1GC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1GC?

Key metric: As 1GC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1GC. This is calculated by dividing 1GC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1GC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.9x
EarningsCA$63.60m
Market CapCA$1.27b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1GC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1GC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average35x
BOSS Hugo Boss
12.7x13.1%€2.7b
BIJ Bijou Brigitte modische Accessoires
11xn/a€264.1m
ADS adidas
103.7x38.1%€39.5b
EIN3 Einhell Germany
12.6x9.2%€732.6m
1GC Canada Goose Holdings
19.9x-4.5%€1.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1GC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x) compared to the peer average (35x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1GC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Luxury Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1GC 19.9xIndustry Avg. 13.9xNo. of Companies7PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1GC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x) compared to the European Luxury industry average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1GC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1GC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.9x
Fair PE Ratio10.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1GC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1GC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€8.97
€8.65
-3.5%
11.2%€10.11€7.41n/a7
Nov ’25€8.89
€9.67
+8.9%
17.2%€12.00€7.33n/a7
Oct ’25€11.20
€10.72
-4.3%
15.0%€12.62€7.31n/a8
Sep ’25€10.40
€10.72
+3.0%
15.0%€12.62€7.31n/a8
Aug ’25€10.02
€12.55
+25.2%
30.3%€22.04€7.35n/a9
Jul ’25€11.99
€13.32
+11.1%
26.8%€22.30€7.43n/a10
Jun ’25€13.15
€13.32
+1.3%
26.8%€22.30€7.43n/a10
May ’25€10.57
€12.46
+17.8%
31.1%€22.58€7.53n/a10
Apr ’25€11.09
€12.46
+12.3%
31.1%€22.58€7.53n/a10
Mar ’25€12.57
€12.46
-0.9%
31.1%€22.58€7.53n/a10
Feb ’25€10.53
€12.23
+16.2%
31.4%€22.68€7.56n/a10
Jan ’25€11.00
€11.88
+8.0%
31.9%€22.56€8.89n/a10
Dec ’24€10.16
€11.85
+16.7%
31.9%€22.51€8.87n/a10
Nov ’24€9.51
€15.45
+62.5%
33.3%€27.99€9.56€8.8910
Oct ’24€13.86
€18.20
+31.3%
21.4%€28.43€13.87€11.2010
Sep ’24€15.08
€18.79
+24.6%
23.1%€27.84€13.58€10.409
Aug ’24€16.21
€19.23
+18.6%
21.2%€27.92€13.62€10.029
Jul ’24€16.25
€19.58
+20.5%
20.3%€28.10€13.71€11.999
Jun ’24€14.51
€19.58
+35.0%
20.3%€28.10€13.71€13.159
May ’24€17.67
€19.87
+12.5%
18.3%€27.97€15.69€10.579
Apr ’24€17.52
€19.87
+13.4%
18.3%€27.97€15.69€11.099
Mar ’24€17.61
€20.31
+15.3%
20.2%€28.45€13.88€12.5711
Feb ’24€22.37
€20.91
-6.5%
17.2%€28.34€15.90€10.5310
Jan ’24€16.17
€20.64
+27.6%
20.6%€30.19€14.73€11.0010
Dec ’23€17.74
€20.64
+16.3%
20.6%€30.19€14.73€10.1610
Nov ’23€16.36
€24.71
+51.1%
22.5%€36.41€17.09€9.5111

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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