Is PUMA’s Recent Share Price Rebound Signalling a Long Term Value Opportunity in 2025?

• If you are wondering whether PUMA’s beaten-up share price is quietly turning into a value opportunity, this article will walk you through whether the stock now looks cheap or just risky.
• After a rough longer-term slide, with the share price still down 53.2% over the last year, PUMA has bounced 6.3% in the past week and 25.4% over the last month, suggesting that market sentiment might be starting to shift.
• This recent rebound comes as investors refocus on the strength of the PUMA brand and its product pipeline, alongside continuing efforts to tighten costs and sharpen its positioning in the global sportswear market. At the same time, heightened competition and changing consumer spending patterns are limiting how far the market is willing to re-rate the stock for now.
• PUMA currently scores a 3/6 valuation check score. This suggests it looks undervalued on some key measures but not across the board. Next, we will unpack those different valuation approaches before finishing with a more holistic way to assess what the stock may be worth.

Find out why PUMA's -53.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: PUMA Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it could generate in the future, then discounting those cash flows back into today’s euros using a required rate of return.

For PUMA, the latest twelve month free cash flow is slightly negative at approximately €13.4 Million, reflecting recent pressure on cash generation. Analysts expect this to improve meaningfully, with free cash flow projected to reach about €218 Million by 2029, and a full 10 year path of forecasts and extrapolations used to capture both the rebound phase and a more mature, steady state thereafter.

Bringing these projected cash flows back to today’s value gives an estimated intrinsic value of €19.81 per share under the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model. This implies the shares are about 7.0% above their DCF fair value, suggesting they are roughly in line with, but slightly ahead of, what the cash flow outlook currently supports.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PUMA is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for PUMA.

Approach 2: PUMA Price vs Sales

For companies like PUMA that are still rebuilding profitability, the price to sales ratio is a useful yardstick because it focuses on how much investors are paying for each euro of revenue, which tends to be more stable than earnings during a turnaround.

In general, faster expected growth and lower perceived risk justify a higher normal price to sales multiple, while slower growth or greater uncertainty should lead to a discount. PUMA currently trades on a price to sales ratio of about 0.37x, which is well below the Luxury industry average of roughly 0.84x and also below the peer group average of around 1.17x.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio, at 0.67x, estimates the price to sales multiple that would be reasonable for PUMA given its growth outlook, profitability profile, industry, market cap and risk factors. This stock specific benchmark is more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the sector, because it explicitly incorporates those fundamentals rather than assuming PUMA should trade like the average Luxury stock. With the market currently valuing PUMA at 0.37x compared with a Fair Ratio of 0.67x, the shares screen as materially undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1440 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your PUMA Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to combine your view of a company with the numbers behind it. A Narrative is your story about PUMA, where you set assumptions for future revenue, earnings and profit margins, which then flow into a financial forecast and finally a fair value estimate. On Simply Wall St, millions of investors create and share these Narratives on the Community page, making it easy and accessible to see how different stories translate into different valuations and decisions. By comparing each Narrative’s Fair Value to today’s Price, you can quickly judge how PUMA looks under that specific scenario. These Narratives also update dynamically as new information, such as earnings releases or major news, is incorporated, so your fair value view can evolve with the facts. For example, some investors might see PUMA rebounding to a higher fair value due to strong brand momentum, while others might set a much lower fair value if they expect competition to keep margins under pressure.

Do you think there's more to the story for PUMA? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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