Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On PUMA SE's (ETR:PUM) Third-Quarter Report

It's been a sad week for PUMA SE (ETR:PUM), who've watched their investment drop 16% to €18.42 in the week since the company reported its third-quarter result. Revenues of €2.0b came in a modest 2.3% below forecasts. Statutory losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share loss of €0.42 coming in a substantial 34% smaller than what the analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 20 analysts covering PUMA, is for revenues of €7.45b in 2026. This implies an uneasy 9.8% reduction in PUMA's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 99% to €0.019 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €7.67b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.30 in 2026. There looks to have been a significant drop in sentiment regarding PUMA's prospects after these latest results, with a minor downgrade to revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.

See our latest analysis for PUMA

The average price target was broadly unchanged at €24.49, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic PUMA analyst has a price target of €44.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €15.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 7.9% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 9.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.7% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - PUMA is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for PUMA dropped from profits to a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at €24.49, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for PUMA going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with PUMA (at least 2 which can't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.