thyssenkrupp nucera (XTRA:NCH2) Q4 EPS Squeeze Undercuts Bullish Margin Recovery Narrative

thyssenkrupp nucera KGaA (XTRA:NCH2) just wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of €182 million and EPS of about €0.01, capping off a year where trailing twelve month revenue came in at €845 million and EPS at €0.04. Over the last six reported quarters, the business has seen revenue move from €237 million in Q3 2024 to a peak of €262 million in Q1 2025 before landing at €182 million in Q4 2025, while quarterly EPS has swung between roughly €0.08 and slight losses. This sets the stage for investors to focus closely on how quickly margins can recover from here.

See our full analysis for thyssenkrupp nucera KGaA.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this margin story lines up against the dominant narratives around thyssenkrupp nucera's long term earnings potential and growth runway.

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Margins Thin at 0.6 Percent Despite Green Hydrogen Ambitions

• Over the last twelve months, net profit margin sat at 0.6 percent, down from 1.3 percent a year earlier, even though analysts still expect earnings to grow around 59.9 percent per year over the next three years.
• Consensus narrative highlights long term earnings quality improving as higher margin service and aftermarket work in chlor alkali grows, yet the current 0.6 percent margin shows that, so far, the greener and higher value projects have not offset weaker near term profitability.
  • Analysts are assuming margins can rise from 1.7 percent today to 4.3 percent in three years. This would be a significant increase from the trailing 0.6 percent profitability now being reported.
  • The expected jump to €38.7 million of earnings by about 2028, from €16.0 million today, rests on these margin gains actually coming through, even as some green hydrogen projects face delays.

Revenues Seen Shrinking While Earnings Forecasts Climb

• Revenue is forecast to fall by about 6.1 percent per year over the next three years, but analysts still project earnings to compound nearly 59.9 percent annually, implying more of the story is about efficiency and mix than top line growth.
• Consensus narrative points to rising paid FEED and engineering contracts today as a bridge to larger future orders. However, the expectation of revenue declining by 0.5 to 6.1 percent per year shows the near term book of work is lighter than the long term green hydrogen story might suggest.
  • Recent softness in order intake and a phase of sales slowdown in green hydrogen are consistent with those negative revenue growth forecasts, even though analysts still expect EPS to reach about €0.32 by 2028.
  • Relying on converting a handful of large projects into firm orders makes that earnings ramp sensitive to any further project postponements or cancellations that would weigh on future revenue.

🐂 thyssenkrupp nucera KGaA Bull Case

Mixed Valuation Signals at €8.99 Share Price

• At a share price of €8.99, the stock sits below the DCF fair value of about €11.83, yet trades on a price to sales multiple of 1.3 times versus 0.9 times for peers and 0.5 times for the wider European construction industry.
• Bears focus on weakening profitability, with trailing earnings down about 9.5 percent per year over five years and margins at 0.6 percent, and argue that a higher than peer sales multiple makes the DCF implied upside harder to rely on until the forecast earnings growth actually appears.
  • The roughly 24 percent discount to DCF fair value hints at upside if earnings hit the projected €38.7 million by 2028, but the history of shrinking earnings and thinner margins shows the business is starting that journey from a soft base.
  • Because revenue itself is expected to contract while the stock still commands a richer price to sales ratio than its sector, skeptics question whether the market is already paying up for green hydrogen potential that has yet to translate into stronger reported profitability.

🐻 thyssenkrupp nucera KGaA Bear Case

Next Steps

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Explore Alternatives

thyssenkrupp nucera's shrinking margins, contracting revenue outlook, and richer than peer valuation multiple make its long term earnings ramp more dependent on execution and more fragile.

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