Stock Analysis

Muehlhan (ETR:M4N shareholders incur further losses as stock declines 34% this week, taking one-year losses to 13%

XTRA:M4N
Source: Shutterstock

It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Investors in Muehlhan AG (ETR:M4N) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 46%. That's disappointing when you consider the market declined 3.4%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 29% in three years. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 34%.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

See our latest analysis for Muehlhan

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SWOT Analysis for Muehlhan

Strength
  • Currently debt free.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.
Opportunity
  • Forecast to reduce losses next year.
  • Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last year Muehlhan saw its earnings per share drop below zero. Some investors no doubt dumped the stock as a result. We hope for shareholders' sake that the company becomes profitable again soon.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
XTRA:M4N Earnings Per Share Growth June 8th 2023

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Muehlhan's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Muehlhan, it has a TSR of -13% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 3.4% in the twelve months, Muehlhan shareholders did even worse, losing 13% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 5% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Muehlhan you should be aware of, and 2 of them can't be ignored.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.