Knorr-Bremse AG Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders might have noticed that Knorr-Bremse AG (ETR:KBX) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.8% to €74.25 in the past week. Revenues of €1.9b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at €0.81, missing estimates by 9.4%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Knorr-Bremse after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Knorr-Bremse

After the latest results, the 13 analysts covering Knorr-Bremse are now predicting revenues of €8.38b in 2025. If met, this would reflect an okay 3.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 15% to €4.28. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €8.42b and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.34 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €77.27, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Knorr-Bremse, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €91.50 and the most bearish at €55.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Knorr-Bremse's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.9% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Knorr-Bremse.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Knorr-Bremse going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Knorr-Bremse that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.