Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Knorr-Bremse AG (ETR:KBX)?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Knorr-Bremse's (ETR:KBX) recent performance, when its stock has declined 11% over the past month. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Knorr-Bremse's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for Knorr-Bremse

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Knorr-Bremse is:

21% = €631m ÷ €3.0b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every €1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of €0.21.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Knorr-Bremse's Earnings Growth And 21% ROE

To start with, Knorr-Bremse's ROE looks acceptable. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 10% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. Given the circumstances, we can't help but wonder why Knorr-Bremse saw little to no growth in the past five years. Therefore, there could be some other aspects that could potentially be preventing the company from growing. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

As a next step, we compared Knorr-Bremse's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 15% in the same period.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is KBX fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Knorr-Bremse Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 47% (or a retention ratio of 53%), Knorr-Bremse hasn't seen much growth in its earnings. So there could be some other explanation in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Additionally, Knorr-Bremse has paid dividends over a period of six years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 49% of its profits over the next three years. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 18%.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Knorr-Bremse has some positive attributes. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.