Earnings Miss: Brenntag SE Missed EPS By 64% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

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Brenntag SE (ETR:BNR) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with €3.9b revenue coming in 4.1% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €0.30 missed the mark badly, arriving some 64% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Brenntag's 13 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €15.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 8.3% to €3.17. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €16.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.54 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Brenntag

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €63.43, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Brenntag analyst has a price target of €85.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €47.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Brenntag's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Brenntag going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Brenntag that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.