JAPAN POST BANK Co., Ltd.

DB:5JP Stock Report

Market Cap: €32.6b

JAPAN POST BANK Valuation

Is 5JP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 5JP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 5JP (€8.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€11.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 5JP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 5JP?

Key metric: As 5JP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 5JP. This is calculated by dividing 5JP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 5JP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.4x
EarningsJP¥396.78b
Market CapJP¥5.33t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 5JP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 5JP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7x
CBK Commerzbank
8.5x8.9%€18.1b
PCZ ProCredit Holding
4.5x12.2%€465.3m
MBK Merkur PrivatBank KgaA
9.9x10.7%€105.8m
000001 Ping An Bank
5.3x5.7%CN¥230.2b
5JP JAPAN POST BANK
13.3x10.3%€5.3t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 5JP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the peer average (7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 5JP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
5JP 13.4xIndustry Avg. 7.6xNo. of Companies45PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 5JP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 5JP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

5JP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.4x
Fair PE Ratio12.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 5JP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 5JP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€8.70
€11.03
+26.8%
21.5%€14.77€6.38n/a11
Dec ’25€8.70
€9.86
+13.4%
18.6%€14.00€6.21n/a11
Nov ’25€8.15
€10.10
+23.9%
18.6%€14.37€6.37n/a11
Oct ’25€8.35
€10.10
+20.9%
18.6%€14.37€6.37n/a11
Sep ’25€8.30
€10.41
+25.5%
18.6%€14.36€6.37n/a11
Aug ’25€9.55
€9.71
+1.7%
18.7%€13.41€5.95n/a11
Jul ’25€8.60
€9.62
+11.8%
18.8%€13.39€5.94n/a11
Jun ’25€8.90
€9.63
+8.2%
16.8%€12.41€6.03n/a11
May ’25€9.25
€9.90
+7.0%
16.6%€12.78€6.39n/a11
Apr ’25€9.75
€10.02
+2.8%
16.5%€12.95€6.48n/a11
Mar ’25€9.85
€9.20
-6.6%
16.4%€11.12€6.49n/a10
Feb ’25€9.40
€9.21
-2.0%
16.3%€11.11€6.52n/a10
Jan ’25€8.95
€9.29
+3.8%
16.2%€11.54€6.77n/a11
Dec ’24€8.80
€8.26
-6.1%
17.7%€11.09€6.51€8.7012
Nov ’24€8.65
€7.70
-11.0%
16.7%€10.72€6.31€8.1513
Oct ’24€8.05
€7.36
-8.6%
10.1%€8.87€6.34€8.3513
Sep ’24€7.30
€7.36
+0.8%
10.1%€8.87€6.34€8.3013
Aug ’24€7.10
€7.19
+1.2%
10.1%€8.98€6.03€9.5513
Jul ’24€7.05
€7.07
+0.3%
9.9%€8.94€6.00€8.6013
Jun ’24€6.85
€7.28
+6.2%
7.3%€8.34€6.27€8.9012
May ’24€7.10
€7.21
+1.6%
7.6%€8.29€6.23€9.2512
Apr ’24€7.40
€7.66
+3.6%
7.6%€8.80€6.62€9.7512
Mar ’24€8.25
€7.40
-10.3%
6.7%€8.30€6.50€9.8510
Feb ’24€8.15
€7.62
-6.5%
6.6%€8.50€6.38€9.4012
Jan ’24€7.95
€7.62
-4.2%
6.6%€8.58€6.43€8.9512
Dec ’23€7.15
€7.24
+1.3%
5.3%€7.56€6.19€8.8012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/25 02:34
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

JAPAN POST BANK Co., Ltd. is covered by 20 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Shinichiro NakamuraBofA Global Research
Koichi NiwaCitigroup Inc
J. WaterhouseCLSA