National Bank of Canada

TSX:NA Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$46.0b

National Bank of Canada Valuation

Is NA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NA (CA$131.91) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$222.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NA?

Key metric: As NA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NA. This is calculated by dividing NA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.6x
EarningsCA$3.66b
Market CapCA$46.03b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14x
CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
12.7x6.5%CA$87.2b
BNS Bank of Nova Scotia
13x8.6%CA$94.8b
BMO Bank of Montreal
14.6x8.1%CA$101.3b
TD Toronto-Dominion Bank
15.8x14.5%CA$131.3b
NA National Bank of Canada
12.6x-1.0%CA$46.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the peer average (14x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NA 12.6xIndustry Avg. 12.5xNo. of Companies84PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the North American Banks industry average (12.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.6x
Fair PE Ratio11.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$131.91
CA$140.50
+6.5%
7.9%CA$154.00CA$109.00n/a12
Dec ’25CA$138.71
CA$138.83
+0.09%
9.4%CA$154.00CA$109.00n/a12
Nov ’25CA$132.14
CA$127.31
-3.7%
7.0%CA$141.00CA$109.00n/a13
Oct ’25CA$127.41
CA$126.31
-0.9%
6.5%CA$141.00CA$109.00n/a13
Sep ’25CA$123.49
CA$124.38
+0.7%
5.2%CA$134.00CA$109.00n/a13
Aug ’25CA$115.21
CA$118.23
+2.6%
5.4%CA$130.00CA$105.00n/a13
Jul ’25CA$108.51
CA$117.83
+8.6%
5.5%CA$130.00CA$105.00n/a12
Jun ’25CA$116.49
CA$118.38
+1.6%
5.8%CA$130.00CA$105.00n/a13
May ’25CA$111.64
CA$112.46
+0.7%
6.4%CA$130.00CA$101.00n/a13
Apr ’25CA$113.64
CA$112.42
-1.1%
5.7%CA$130.00CA$105.00n/a12
Mar ’25CA$106.71
CA$108.50
+1.7%
3.1%CA$114.00CA$101.00n/a12
Feb ’25CA$103.29
CA$103.18
-0.1%
3.0%CA$107.00CA$96.00n/a11
Jan ’25CA$101.00
CA$101.91
+0.9%
4.6%CA$107.00CA$92.00n/a11
Dec ’24CA$94.28
CA$100.70
+6.8%
4.2%CA$106.00CA$92.00CA$138.7110
Nov ’24CA$86.50
CA$102.80
+18.8%
4.0%CA$107.00CA$92.00CA$132.1410
Oct ’24CA$90.23
CA$104.10
+15.4%
1.8%CA$107.00CA$101.00CA$127.4110
Sep ’24CA$94.88
CA$104.00
+9.6%
3.2%CA$108.00CA$96.00CA$123.4912
Aug ’24CA$103.19
CA$104.38
+1.2%
4.7%CA$111.00CA$92.00CA$115.2113
Jul ’24CA$98.70
CA$104.15
+5.5%
4.8%CA$111.00CA$92.00CA$108.5113
Jun ’24CA$95.28
CA$104.92
+10.1%
4.6%CA$111.00CA$93.00CA$116.4913
May ’24CA$101.19
CA$106.69
+5.4%
4.8%CA$113.00CA$98.00CA$111.6413
Apr ’24CA$96.67
CA$106.69
+10.4%
4.8%CA$113.00CA$98.00CA$113.6413
Mar ’24CA$101.86
CA$106.46
+4.5%
4.4%CA$112.00CA$98.00CA$106.7113
Feb ’24CA$100.52
CA$103.88
+3.3%
6.5%CA$115.00CA$93.00CA$103.2913
Jan ’24CA$91.23
CA$103.88
+13.9%
6.5%CA$115.00CA$93.00CA$101.0013
Dec ’23CA$95.86
CA$103.35
+7.8%
6.3%CA$115.00CA$93.00CA$94.2813

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:27
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/10/31
Annual Earnings2024/10/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

National Bank of Canada is covered by 25 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John AikenBarclays
Brian MortonBarclays
Sohrab MovahediBMO Capital Markets Equity Research