The Toronto-Dominion Bank

TSX:TD Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$133.4b

Toronto-Dominion Bank Valuation

Is TD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TD (CA$76.22) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$155.53)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TD?

Key metric: As TD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TD. This is calculated by dividing TD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16x
EarningsCA$8.32b
Market CapCA$133.38b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14x
BMO Bank of Montreal
14.6x8.1%CA$101.5b
CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
12.7x6.5%CA$87.2b
BNS Bank of Nova Scotia
13x8.6%CA$94.7b
RY Royal Bank of Canada
15.4x3.0%CA$245.5b
TD Toronto-Dominion Bank
16x14.5%CA$133.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x) compared to the peer average (14x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TD 16.0xIndustry Avg. 12.6xNo. of Companies85PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x) compared to the North American Banks industry average (12.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16x
Fair PE Ratio16.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$76.22
CA$84.36
+10.7%
6.5%CA$94.00CA$77.00n/a14
Dec ’25CA$79.23
CA$88.07
+11.2%
6.6%CA$99.00CA$79.00n/a14
Nov ’25CA$76.76
CA$85.30
+11.1%
6.6%CA$96.00CA$75.00n/a15
Oct ’25CA$85.89
CA$86.97
+1.3%
6.7%CA$100.00CA$77.00n/a15
Sep ’25CA$80.75
CA$86.22
+6.8%
5.4%CA$93.50CA$77.00n/a16
Aug ’25CA$80.57
CA$85.60
+6.2%
6.8%CA$93.50CA$73.00n/a16
Jul ’25CA$75.20
CA$85.84
+14.1%
6.9%CA$93.50CA$73.00n/a15
Jun ’25CA$76.20
CA$86.16
+13.1%
6.3%CA$93.50CA$75.00n/a16
May ’25CA$80.76
CA$89.44
+10.8%
4.7%CA$96.00CA$81.00n/a16
Apr ’25CA$81.76
CA$88.69
+8.5%
5.1%CA$96.00CA$81.00n/a16
Mar ’25CA$81.31
CA$87.35
+7.4%
8.1%CA$96.00CA$66.00n/a16
Feb ’25CA$81.06
CA$87.43
+7.9%
8.4%CA$96.00CA$66.00n/a15
Jan ’25CA$85.62
CA$87.08
+1.7%
8.2%CA$96.00CA$66.00n/a12
Dec ’24CA$81.91
CA$87.87
+7.3%
9.7%CA$99.25CA$66.00CA$79.2313
Nov ’24CA$77.49
CA$91.35
+17.9%
9.9%CA$101.00CA$66.00CA$76.7612
Oct ’24CA$81.83
CA$91.35
+11.6%
9.9%CA$101.00CA$66.00CA$85.8912
Sep ’24CA$83.27
CA$91.25
+9.6%
8.0%CA$101.00CA$71.00CA$80.7516
Aug ’24CA$86.72
CA$92.72
+6.9%
6.0%CA$103.00CA$81.00CA$80.5716
Jul ’24CA$82.11
CA$92.32
+12.4%
6.3%CA$103.00CA$81.00CA$75.2016
Jun ’24CA$77.28
CA$91.10
+17.9%
9.1%CA$104.14CA$71.00CA$76.2017
May ’24CA$81.99
CA$98.07
+19.6%
7.5%CA$110.00CA$84.60CA$80.7617
Apr ’24CA$80.95
CA$99.23
+22.6%
6.7%CA$110.00CA$85.00CA$81.7616
Mar ’24CA$90.66
CA$102.84
+13.4%
4.5%CA$113.00CA$96.00CA$81.3116
Feb ’24CA$91.49
CA$101.28
+10.7%
6.1%CA$113.00CA$84.00CA$81.0616
Jan ’24CA$87.67
CA$101.40
+15.7%
5.8%CA$113.00CA$86.00CA$85.6216
Dec ’23CA$91.84
CA$99.01
+7.8%
4.6%CA$106.00CA$87.00CA$81.9116

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/24 03:45
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/10/31
Annual Earnings2024/10/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

The Toronto-Dominion Bank is covered by 28 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Mark RosenAccountability Research Corporation
John AikenBarclays
Brian MortonBarclays