Volkswagen (XTRA:VOW3) Valuation Check After Recent Share Price Rebound

Volkswagen (XTRA:VOW3) has quietly staged a meaningful rebound, with the share price up about 2% in a day, 6% over the past week, and roughly 11% this month.

See our latest analysis for Volkswagen.

That bounce comes after a stretch of uneven trading, with a modest 3 month share price return of 3.78%, but a much stronger 1 year total shareholder return of 34.71%. This suggests momentum is rebuilding as investors reassess Volkswagen’s prospects at a share price of $102.85.

If Volkswagen’s latest move has you thinking about the wider auto space, it could be worth scanning auto manufacturers for other manufacturers showing interesting trends.

With earnings rebounding and the share price still sitting below analyst targets but well above last year’s levels, is Volkswagen quietly trading at a discount, or are markets already pricing in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 7.8% Undervalued

With Volkswagen closing at €102.85 against a narrative fair value of about €111.60, the valuation case leans toward modest upside if the growth path holds.

Volkswagen's heavy investment in local production, partnerships (such as with Rivian), and a new cost-optimized manufacturing footprint (notably in China and the U.S.) is expected to mitigate exposure to geopolitical risks and tariffs over time, enabling margin recovery and potentially boosting long-term earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how moderate top line growth can still support a higher value? The narrative leans on sharper margin recovery and a future earnings multiple that undercuts many global peers. Want to see which long range profit and valuation assumptions line up to justify that gap?

Result: Fair Value of €111.60 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this depends on trade tensions and intensifying BEV competition not worsening, because either could squeeze margins and derail the recovery thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Volkswagen narrative.

Build Your Own Volkswagen Narrative

If you see things differently, or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized Volkswagen thesis in just minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Volkswagen research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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