Here's Why Novem Group (ETR:NVM) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Novem Group S.A. (ETR:NVM) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

View our latest analysis for Novem Group

What Is Novem Group's Debt?

As you can see below, Novem Group had €250.0m of debt, at September 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have €132.4m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €117.6m.

How Strong Is Novem Group's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Novem Group had liabilities of €144.2m due within a year, and liabilities of €330.4m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of €132.4m and €64.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total €278.1m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of €228.9m, we think shareholders really should watch Novem Group's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Novem Group's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.6 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 3.1 times last year. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. Importantly, Novem Group's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 32% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Novem Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Novem Group generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 89% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.

Our View

Mulling over Novem Group's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Novem Group has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Novem Group you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.