American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.

BST:AYA Stock Report

Market Cap: €704.8m

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Valuation

Is AYA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AYA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AYA (€6.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€27.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AYA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AYA?

Key metric: As AYA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AYA. This is calculated by dividing AYA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AYA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26.6x
EarningsUS$27.90m
Market CapUS$741.94m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AYA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AYA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.5x
SFQ SAF-Holland
7.9x14.3%€612.8m
NVM Novem Group
8.3x17.2%€231.5m
ED4 EDAG Engineering Group
9.1x18.8%€192.0m
SHA0 Schaeffler
28.5x71.5%€4.1b
AYA American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings
26.6x48.6%€741.9m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AYA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.6x) compared to the peer average (13.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AYA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Auto Components Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AYA 26.6xIndustry Avg. 9.5xNo. of Companies8PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AYA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.6x) compared to the European Auto Components industry average (9.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AYA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AYA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.6x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AYA's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AYA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
€7.30
0%
19.8%€9.50€5.70n/a8
Nov ’25n/a
€6.95
0%
20.2%€9.19€5.51n/a8
Oct ’25n/a
€7.02
0%
18.6%€8.99€5.39n/a8
Sep ’25n/a
€7.22
0%
15.0%€8.97€5.38n/a9
Aug ’25n/a
€7.50
0%
14.1%€9.19€5.51n/a9
Jul ’25n/a
€7.48
0%
15.0%€9.29€5.57n/a9
Jun ’25n/a
€7.48
0%
15.0%€9.29€5.57n/a9
May ’25n/a
€7.41
0%
16.0%€9.39€5.63n/a9
Apr ’25n/a
€7.28
0%
16.0%€9.23€5.54n/a9
Mar ’25n/a
€7.28
0%
16.0%€9.23€5.54n/a9
Feb ’25n/a
€7.30
0%
19.1%€10.11€5.51n/a9
Jan ’25n/a
€7.51
0%
17.6%€10.19€5.56n/a9
Dec ’24n/a
€7.38
0%
17.6%€10.01€5.46n/a9
Nov ’24n/a
€8.13
0%
12.8%€10.39€7.09n/a9
Oct ’24n/a
€8.84
0%
12.4%€11.36€7.57n/a9
Sep ’24n/a
€8.77
0%
15.5%€10.93€7.29n/a8
Aug ’24n/a
€8.57
0%
15.5%€10.69€7.12n/a8
Jul ’24€7.10
€8.76
+23.4%
16.6%€11.07€7.38n/a8
Jun ’24n/a
€8.76
0%
16.6%€11.07€7.38n/a8
May ’24n/a
€8.89
0%
14.3%€10.94€7.29n/a8
Apr ’24n/a
€9.20
0%
12.8%€11.17€8.38n/a8
Mar ’24n/a
€9.49
0%
12.3%€11.32€8.49n/a8
Feb ’24n/a
€9.34
0%
15.3%€11.97€8.29n/a7
Jan ’24n/a
€9.88
0%
18.5%€12.49€6.72n/a7
Dec ’23n/a
€9.88
0%
18.5%€12.49€6.72n/a7
Nov ’23n/a
€10.42
0%
20.4%€13.17€8.10n/a7

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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