Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Foran Energy Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002911) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Foran Energy Group
How Much Debt Does Foran Energy Group Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Foran Energy Group had debt of CN¥3.91b at the end of September 2024, a reduction from CN¥4.29b over a year. However, it does have CN¥3.56b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥353.7m.
A Look At Foran Energy Group's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Foran Energy Group had liabilities of CN¥7.55b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥2.75b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥3.56b and CN¥947.7m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥5.79b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Foran Energy Group has a market capitalization of CN¥15.8b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Foran Energy Group has a low debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.21. And remarkably, despite having net debt, it actually received more in interest over the last twelve months than it had to pay. So it's fair to say it can handle debt like a hotshot teppanyaki chef handles cooking. And we also note warmly that Foran Energy Group grew its EBIT by 14% last year, making its debt load easier to handle. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Foran Energy Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Foran Energy Group produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 56% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
Happily, Foran Energy Group's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And the good news does not stop there, as its net debt to EBITDA also supports that impression! It's also worth noting that Foran Energy Group is in the Gas Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like Foran Energy Group is pretty sensible with its use of debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Foran Energy Group .
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SZSE:002911
Foran Energy Group
Foran Energy Group Co., Ltd. transports and sells natural gas in China.
Excellent balance sheet with proven track record.