Earnings Miss: Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd Missed EPS By 17% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd (SHSE:603885), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its full-year results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥20b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 17%, coming in at just CN¥0.34 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Juneyao Airlines

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Juneyao Airlines from twelve analysts is for revenues of CN¥24.6b in 2024. If met, it would imply a sizeable 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 166% to CN¥0.91. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥25.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.09 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

The average price target fell 6.5% to CN¥20.74, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Juneyao Airlines analyst has a price target of CN¥26.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥14.70. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Juneyao Airlines shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that Juneyao Airlines' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 22% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 2.4% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.3% per year. Not only are Juneyao Airlines' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Juneyao Airlines. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Juneyao Airlines going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Juneyao Airlines is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.