Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 30
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 5.0% to CN¥5.27. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥6.61, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 30%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 1.4% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 33% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Apr 30
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2026 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2026, at 14:30 China Standard Time. Location: No. 196, Xiaodongmen Jiekou, Jianshe North Road, Taiyuan, Shanxi China Announcement • Mar 30
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 30, 2026 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Apr 30, 2026 Price Target Changed • Jan 06
Price target decreased by 8.8% to CN¥6.02 Down from CN¥6.60, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 15% above last closing price of CN¥5.21. Stock is down 21% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.35 for next year compared to CN¥0.51 last year. Announcement • Dec 26
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Apr 30, 2026 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Apr 30, 2026 Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: CN¥0.10 (down from CN¥0.16 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: CN¥19.8b (up 6.3% from 3Q 2024). Net income: CN¥2.11b (down 23% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 11% (down from 15% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 2.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.1% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 5% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Declared Dividend • Oct 19
First half dividend of CN¥0.08 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CN¥0.08. Ex-date: 24th October 2025 Payment date: 24th October 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (57% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (169% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 17% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Sep 30
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 30, 2025 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Oct 30, 2025 Reported Earnings • Aug 31
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: CN¥0.079 (down from CN¥0.16 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: CN¥19.5b (up 6.3% from 2Q 2024). Net income: CN¥1.54b (down 45% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 7.9% (down from 15% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 9.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.0% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 21% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 1% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Board Change • Aug 28
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 4 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 7 non-independent directors. Independent Director Yujie Zhu was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Declared Dividend • Jul 06
Dividend of CN¥0.14 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CN¥0.14. Ex-date: 11th July 2025 Payment date: 11th July 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (58% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (330% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 13% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Jun 30
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Aug 29, 2025 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Aug 29, 2025 Board Change • May 07
High number of new directors Director Pengjun Chen was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2024. Major Estimate Revision • May 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 19% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥80.1b to CN¥76.7b. EPS estimate also fell from CN¥0.568 per share to CN¥0.461 per share. Net income forecast to grow 18% next year vs 7.3% growth forecast for Transportation industry in China. Consensus price target down from CN¥7.19 to CN¥6.93. Share price fell 4.1% to CN¥6.49 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.51 (down from CN¥0.79 in FY 2023). Revenue: CN¥74.6b (down 7.9% from FY 2023). Net income: CN¥9.04b (down 24% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 12% (down from 15% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 6.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.8% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 12% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 1% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Apr 30
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2025 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2025, at 14:30 China Standard Time. Location: No. 196, Xiaodongmen Jiekou, Jianshe North Road, Taiyuan, Shanxi China Price Target Changed • Apr 16
Price target decreased by 7.2% to CN¥7.19 Down from CN¥7.75, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 5.6% above last closing price of CN¥6.81. Stock is down 11% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.54 for next year compared to CN¥0.79 last year. Announcement • Mar 28
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 30, 2025 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Apr 30, 2025 Announcement • Dec 27
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Apr 30, 2025 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Apr 30, 2025 Announcement • Sep 30
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 30, 2024 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Oct 30, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Sep 04
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥80.9b to CN¥78.6b. EPS estimate also fell from CN¥0.647 per share to CN¥0.581 per share. Net income forecast to grow 6.4% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Transportation industry in China. Consensus price target down from CN¥8.03 to CN¥7.80. Share price fell 8.3% to CN¥6.10 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 29
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.16 (vs CN¥0.26 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.16 (down from CN¥0.26 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥18.3b (down 11% from 2Q 2023). Net income: CN¥2.82b (down 27% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 15% (down from 19% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 29
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 13% to CN¥6.15. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥7.80, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 5.9%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 7.7% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 15% in the next 2 years. Declared Dividend • Jul 06
Dividend reduced to CN¥0.38 Dividend of CN¥0.38 is 20% lower than last year. Ex-date: 11th July 2024 Payment date: 11th July 2024 Dividend yield will be 5.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (61% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (110% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 8.2% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 32% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Announcement • Jun 28
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 30, 2024 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Aug 30, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • May 03
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥84.3b to CN¥82.0b. EPS estimate also fell from CN¥0.792 per share to CN¥0.671 per share. Net income forecast to grow 5.4% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Transportation industry in China. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CN¥7.79. Share price fell 7.0% to CN¥6.92 over the past week. Announcement • Apr 29
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2024 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2024, at 14:30 China Standard Time. Location: No. 196, Xiaodongmen Jiekou, Jianshe North Road, Taiyuan, Shanxi China Reported Earnings • Apr 27
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.18 (vs CN¥0.25 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.18 (down from CN¥0.25 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥18.3b (down 7.9% from 1Q 2023). Net income: CN¥3.05b (down 17% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 17% (down from 18% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.4% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 3% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Mar 29
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 27, 2024 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Apr 27, 2024 Announcement • Dec 30
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Apr 27, 2024 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Apr 27, 2024 Reported Earnings • Oct 27
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS in line with analyst expectations despite revenue beat Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.23. Revenue: CN¥20.4b (up 2.6% from 3Q 2022). Net income: CN¥3.57b (up 2.3% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 18% (in line with 3Q 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.6% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Asia. Reported Earnings • Aug 29
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.26 (down from CN¥0.29 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: CN¥20.6b (flat on 2Q 2022). Net income: CN¥3.88b (down 11% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 19% (down from 21% in 2Q 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 1.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year. New Risk • Jul 05
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.0% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.04% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.0% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Jun 28
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Aug 29, 2023 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2023 results on Aug 29, 2023 Buying Opportunity • Jun 14
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 2.7%. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥9.44, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue is forecast to grow by 9.1% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 4.3% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Apr 28
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.25 (vs CN¥0.20 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.25 (up from CN¥0.20 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: CN¥19.8b (up 8.7% from 1Q 2022). Net income: CN¥3.65b (up 23% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 18% (up from 16% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year and the company’s share price has also increased by 2% per year. Board Change • Nov 16
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 7 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 7 new directors. No experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. Employee Representative Supervisor Jianzhong Song is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.24 (up from CN¥0.19 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥19.8b (up 4.3% from 3Q 2021). Net income: CN¥3.49b (up 25% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 18% (up from 15% in 3Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 8.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 15%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year. Reported Earnings • Aug 31
Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.29 (up from CN¥0.26 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥20.7b (up 7.7% from 2Q 2021). Net income: CN¥4.35b (up 13% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 21% (in line with 2Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 16%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.3%, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year. Reported Earnings • May 02
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.20 (down from CN¥0.24 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥18.3b (down 5.9% from 1Q 2021). Net income: CN¥2.97b (down 18% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 16% (down from 19% in 1Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 20%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 5.2%, compared to a 17% growth forecast for the industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 7% per year and the company’s share price has also fallen by 7% per year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 9 experienced directors. 3 highly experienced directors. 4 independent directors (7 non-independent directors). Chairman Shaoqing Yang was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2011. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.19 (vs CN¥0.22 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a poor third quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥19.0b (down 1.0% from 3Q 2020). Net income: CN¥2.79b (down 16% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 15% (down from 17% in 3Q 2020). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 9% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year. Reported Earnings • Aug 27
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.26 (vs CN¥0.21 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥19.2b (up 11% from 2Q 2020). Net income: CN¥3.84b (up 28% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 20% (up from 17% in 2Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 9% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year. Reported Earnings • May 01
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.24 (vs CN¥0.17 in 1Q 2020) The company reported a strong first quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥19.4b (up 20% from 1Q 2020). Net income: CN¥3.62b (up 41% from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 19% (up from 16% in 1Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 10% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 10
New 90-day high: CN¥6.86 The company is up 1.0% from its price of CN¥6.81 on 10 December 2020. The Chinese market is down 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Transportation industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is CN¥16.38 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 24
New 90-day high: CN¥6.68 The company is up 2.0% from its price of CN¥6.53 on 26 August 2020. The Chinese market is flat over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Transportation industry, which is down 7.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is CN¥12.78 per share. Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of CN¥10.5b, down 26% from the prior year. Total revenue was CN¥72.7b over the last 12 months, down 8.9% from the prior year. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Oct 29
Third-quarter earnings released: Revenue and earnings miss expectations Third-quarter revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.2% at CN¥19.2b. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 8.1% at CN¥0.22. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.8% over the next year, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in China. Announcement • Jul 10
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2020 Results on Aug 28, 2020 Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2020 results on Aug 28, 2020