Earnings Miss: Glodon Company Limited Missed EPS By 79% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The quarterly results for Glodon Company Limited (SZSE:002410) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results were mixed, with revenues of CN¥1.3b exceeding expectations, even as statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell badly short. Earnings were CN¥0.0037 per share, -79% short of analyst expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Glodon

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Glodon's 20 analysts is for revenues of CN¥6.79b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 5.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 731% to CN¥0.30. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥6.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.30 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CN¥13.10. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Glodon at CN¥20.20 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥9.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Glodon's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 18% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Glodon.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Glodon analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Glodon has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com