Geovis TechnologyLtd's (SHSE:688568) Earnings Might Not Be As Promising As They Seem

Solid profit numbers didn't seem to be enough to please Geovis Technology Co.,Ltd's (SHSE:688568) shareholders. We think that they might be concerned about some underlying details that our analysis found.

Check out our latest analysis for Geovis TechnologyLtd

A Closer Look At Geovis TechnologyLtd's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Over the twelve months to September 2024, Geovis TechnologyLtd recorded an accrual ratio of 0.25. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥385.1m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥396m in the last year. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥396m, this year, indicates high risk. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Geovis TechnologyLtd's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥155m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. We can see that Geovis TechnologyLtd's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to September 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Geovis TechnologyLtd's Profit Performance

Geovis TechnologyLtd had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Geovis TechnologyLtd's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've found that Geovis TechnologyLtd has 2 warning signs (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.