Modern Avenue Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002656) Stock Rockets 28% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Those holding Modern Avenue Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002656) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 28% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 40% over that time.

After such a large jump in price, when almost half of the companies in China's Specialty Retail industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.1x, you may consider Modern Avenue Group as a stock not worth researching with its 4.2x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

See our latest analysis for Modern Avenue Group

How Has Modern Avenue Group Performed Recently?

For instance, Modern Avenue Group's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Modern Avenue Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Modern Avenue Group's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 1.2% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 65% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 22% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Modern Avenue Group is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Shares in Modern Avenue Group have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Modern Avenue Group revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Modern Avenue Group with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

If you're unsure about the strength of Modern Avenue Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.