China Tourism Group Duty Free Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

China Tourism Group Duty Free is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 18.5% and 15.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 18.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 14.1% in 3 years.

Key information

18.5%

Earnings growth rate

18.7%

EPS growth rate

Specialty Retail earnings growth	25.7%
Revenue growth rate	15.4%
Future return on equity	14.1%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	25 Aug 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

There's No Escaping China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited's (SHSE:601888) Muted Earnings

Aug 13

Capital Allocation Trends At China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) Aren't Ideal

Jul 31

Time To Worry? Analysts Just Downgraded Their China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) Outlook

Jul 17

At CN¥73.41, Is It Time To Put China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) On Your Watch List?

Jun 05

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888)

May 22

Earnings Working Against China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited's (SHSE:601888) Share Price

May 09

China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) Is Posting Promising Earnings But The Good News Doesn’t Stop There

Apr 08

Is There Now An Opportunity In China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888)?

Feb 28

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

SHSE:601888 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CNY Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	92,858	9,800	9,604	N/A	28
12/31/2025	84,348	8,720	7,952	N/A	31
12/31/2024	71,343	7,128	6,740	N/A	25
6/30/2024	62,947	6,136	N/A	N/A	N/A
3/31/2024	65,578	6,719	11,135	13,004	N/A
12/31/2023	67,540	6,714	13,325	15,126	N/A
9/30/2023	65,905	5,609	11,813	14,035	N/A
6/30/2023	62,641	4,958	6,020	8,594	N/A
3/31/2023	58,420	4,768	2,420	5,243	N/A
12/31/2022	54,433	5,030	-6,411	-3,415	N/A
9/30/2022	57,541	5,793	-2,095	1,199	N/A
6/30/2022	59,800	8,235	1,248	4,142	N/A
3/31/2022	66,324	9,369	4,540	7,017	N/A
12/31/2021	67,676	9,654	6,174	8,329	N/A
9/30/2021	66,958	11,465	3,231	4,673	N/A
6/30/2021	68,479	10,468	3,466	4,779	N/A
3/31/2021	62,760	9,010	7,879	9,159	N/A
12/31/2020	52,598	6,140	6,967	8,201	N/A
9/30/2020	47,597	3,581	4,897	6,007	N/A
6/30/2020	43,494	2,369	3,603	4,606	N/A
3/31/2020	42,892	2,304	-2,325	-1,409	N/A
12/31/2019	48,612	4,632	1,605	3,121	N/A
9/30/2019	49,060	4,604	743	3,086	N/A
6/30/2019	50,686	4,467	851	3,200	N/A
3/31/2019	51,850	4,241	1,944	4,237	N/A
12/31/2018	47,007	3,095	1,141	2,722	N/A
9/30/2018	41,639	3,328	3,482	4,053	N/A
6/30/2018	36,799	3,150	3,274	3,667	N/A
3/31/2018	31,350	2,972	N/A	4,869	N/A
12/31/2017	28,282	2,531	N/A	3,017	N/A
9/30/2017	26,689	2,255	N/A	2,995	N/A
6/30/2017	24,695	2,002	N/A	2,570	N/A
3/31/2017	22,941	1,830	N/A	1,311	N/A
12/31/2016	22,390	1,808	N/A	1,937	N/A
9/30/2016	21,942	1,648	N/A	1,752	N/A
6/30/2016	21,539	1,596	N/A	1,942	N/A
3/31/2016	21,526	1,557	N/A	1,783	N/A
12/31/2015	21,292	1,506	N/A	1,571	N/A
9/30/2015	21,194	1,596	N/A	1,651	N/A
6/30/2015	21,002	1,636	N/A	1,677	N/A
3/31/2015	20,528	1,584	N/A	1,651	N/A
12/31/2014	19,936	1,470	N/A	1,496	N/A
9/30/2014	19,336	1,362	N/A	1,326	N/A
6/30/2014	18,552	1,341	N/A	1,140	N/A
3/31/2014	17,913	1,331	N/A	1,358	N/A
12/31/2013	17,448	1,295	N/A	1,470	N/A
9/30/2013	17,301	1,352	N/A	1,783	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 601888's forecast earnings growth (18.5% per year) is above the savings rate (2.9%).

Earnings vs Market: 601888's earnings (18.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the CN market (22% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 601888's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 601888's revenue (15.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the CN market (13.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 601888's revenue (15.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 601888's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.1%).

China Tourism Group Duty Free Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Price target decreased by 7.3% to CN¥88.70

Price target decreased by 8.6% to CN¥117

Price target decreased by 8.7% to CN¥134

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 20%

Price target decreased by 9.7% to CN¥164

Price target decreased by 7.1% to CN¥195

Recent updates

There's No Escaping China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited's (SHSE:601888) Muted Earnings

Capital Allocation Trends At China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) Aren't Ideal

Price target decreased by 7.3% to CN¥88.70

Time To Worry? Analysts Just Downgraded Their China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) Outlook

Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.47 (vs CN¥0.76 in 2Q 2023)

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 31, 2024

At CN¥73.41, Is It Time To Put China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) On Your Watch List?

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Announces Board and Committee Change

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Announces Change in the Composition of Board Committee

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888)

Earnings Working Against China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited's (SHSE:601888) Share Price

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 23, 2024

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) Is Posting Promising Earnings But The Good News Doesn’t Stop There

Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 24, 2024

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Proposes Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2023

Is There Now An Opportunity In China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888)?

Price target decreased by 8.6% to CN¥117

Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥3.25 (vs CN¥2.53 in FY 2022)

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 28, 2024

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Price target decreased by 8.7% to CN¥134

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Announces Change in the Composition of Strategy Committee

Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Approves Appointment of Mr. Wang Xuan as Chairman of the Board

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Announces the Demise of Mr. Li Gang, Chairman of the Board and an Executive Director, A Member of the Nomination Committee of the Board and the Chairman of the Strategy Committee of the Board

Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 20%

Price target decreased by 9.7% to CN¥164

Second quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues miss analyst expectations

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

New minor risk - Shareholder dilution

Price target decreased by 7.1% to CN¥195

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Approves Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2022, Payable on 25 August 2023

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 29, 2023

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10%

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Announces Board and Committee Changes

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Announces Executive Changes

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 12%

Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited to Report Nine Months, 2022 Results on Oct 28, 2022

Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited to Report First Half, 2022 Results on Aug 29, 2022

Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 12%

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

High number of new and inexperienced directors

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 10%

Price target decreased to CN¥262

First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop

Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) entered into an agreement to acquire China CTS Asset Management Corporation from China Tourism Group Co., Ltd. for approximately CNY 126.48 million.

Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥1.60 (vs CN¥1.14 in 3Q 2020)

Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥1.29 (vs CN¥0.54 in 2Q 2020)

Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥1.33 (vs CN¥0.54 in 2Q 2020)

Upcoming dividend of CN¥1.00 per share

First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥1.46 (vs CN¥0.011 loss in 1Q 2020)