Getting In Cheap On Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301246) Is Unlikely

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 55.6x Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301246) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 31x and even P/E's lower than 18x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 72%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 38% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 41% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Hubei Hongyuan Pharmaceutical Technology you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.