Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,Ltd Just Missed EPS By 14%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000538) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥39b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 14%, coming in at just CN¥2.29 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd's ten analysts is for revenues of CN¥41.9b in 2024. This reflects an okay 7.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 11% to CN¥2.55. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥43.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.87 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥64.49 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd at CN¥75.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥55.20. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.2% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 7.3% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 15% annually. So although Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.