Stock Analysis

Is Zhejiang CONBA Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600572) Worth CN¥4.3 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?

SHSE:600572
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Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd fair value estimate is CN¥3.42
  • Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd is estimated to be 25% overvalued based on current share price of CN¥4.28
  • Analyst price target for 600572 is CN¥7.27, which is 112% above our fair value estimate

Does the August share price for Zhejiang CONBA Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600572) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd

The Model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥521.3m CN¥462.3m CN¥429.5m CN¥411.9m CN¥403.6m CN¥401.4m CN¥403.3m CN¥408.1m CN¥414.9m CN¥423.3m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ -17.41% Est @ -11.33% Est @ -7.08% Est @ -4.10% Est @ -2.01% Est @ -0.55% Est @ 0.47% Est @ 1.18% Est @ 1.68% Est @ 2.03%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8% CN¥488 CN¥405 CN¥352 CN¥316 CN¥290 CN¥270 CN¥254 CN¥240 CN¥229 CN¥219

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.1b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥423m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (6.8%– 2.9%) = CN¥11b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥11b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)10= CN¥5.6b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥8.7b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥4.3, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
SHSE:600572 Discounted Cash Flow August 20th 2024

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Chinese market.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by earnings.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd, we've put together three pertinent items you should further examine:

  1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 600572's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.