Xinhuanet's (SHSE:603888) Shareholders May Want To Dig Deeper Than Statutory Profit

Xinhuanet Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603888) just released a solid earnings report, and the stock displayed some strength. However, we think that shareholders should be cautious as we found some worrying factors underlying the profit.

See our latest analysis for Xinhuanet

Examining Cashflow Against Xinhuanet's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Over the twelve months to March 2024, Xinhuanet recorded an accrual ratio of -0.44. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥404m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of CN¥275.0m. Xinhuanet's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. Having said that it seems that a recent tax benefit and some unusual items have impacted its profit (and this its accrual ratio).

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Xinhuanet.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Surprisingly, given Xinhuanet's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥24m in unusual items. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).

An Unusual Tax Situation

Moving on from the accrual ratio, we note that Xinhuanet profited from a tax benefit which contributed CN¥84m to profit. This is meaningful because companies usually pay tax rather than receive tax benefits. Of course, prima facie it's great to receive a tax benefit. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth. So while we think it's great to receive a tax benefit, it does tend to imply an increased risk that the statutory profit overstates the sustainable earnings power of the business.

Our Take On Xinhuanet's Profit Performance

In conclusion, Xinhuanet's accrual ratio suggests its earnings are well backed by cash but its boost from unusual items, and a tax benefit, probably mean that the statutory number make the company seem more profitable than it is at an underlying level. Based on these factors, we think that Xinhuanet's statutory profits probably make it seem better than it is on an underlying level. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Xinhuanet at this point in time. While conducting our analysis, we found that Xinhuanet has 1 warning sign and it would be unwise to ignore this.

Our examination of Xinhuanet has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.