Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:301163) Stock Rockets 25% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:301163) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 25% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking further back, the 19% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

After such a large jump in price, Jiangsu Hongde Special PartsLtd's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 69.5x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 39x and even P/E's below 22x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

For example, consider that Jiangsu Hongde Special PartsLtd's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Jiangsu Hongde Special PartsLtd

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Jiangsu Hongde Special PartsLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Jiangsu Hongde Special PartsLtd's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 46%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 67% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 37% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Jiangsu Hongde Special PartsLtd's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in Jiangsu Hongde Special PartsLtd have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Jiangsu Hongde Special PartsLtd revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Jiangsu Hongde Special PartsLtd that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Jiangsu Hongde Special PartsLtd's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.