Optimistic Investors Push ABA Chemicals Corporation (SZSE:300261) Shares Up 25% But Growth Is Lacking

ABA Chemicals Corporation (SZSE:300261) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 25% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. But the last month did very little to improve the 51% share price decline over the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, when almost half of the companies in China's Chemicals industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.9x, you may consider ABA Chemicals as a stock not worth researching with its 4.1x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

See our latest analysis for ABA Chemicals

How Has ABA Chemicals Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at ABA Chemicals over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on ABA Chemicals will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

ABA Chemicals' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 31%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 31% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 25% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that ABA Chemicals is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What Does ABA Chemicals' P/S Mean For Investors?

The strong share price surge has lead to ABA Chemicals' P/S soaring as well. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that ABA Chemicals currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for ABA Chemicals (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on ABA Chemicals, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.