Stock Analysis

Calculating The Fair Value Of Peric Special Gases Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688146)

SHSE:688146
Source: Shutterstock

Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Peric Special Gases is CN¥23.61 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of CN¥27.64 suggests Peric Special Gases is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • Analyst price target for 688146 is CN¥31.00, which is 31% above our fair value estimate

How far off is Peric Special Gases Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688146) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Peric Special Gases

Is Peric Special Gases Fairly Valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥322.2m CN¥424.3m CN¥522.0m CN¥610.8m CN¥688.8m CN¥756.4m CN¥814.9m CN¥866.1m CN¥911.7m CN¥953.3m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 44.01% Est @ 31.68% Est @ 23.04% Est @ 17.00% Est @ 12.77% Est @ 9.81% Est @ 7.74% Est @ 6.29% Est @ 5.27% Est @ 4.56%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.3% CN¥298 CN¥362 CN¥411 CN¥444 CN¥463 CN¥470 CN¥467 CN¥459 CN¥446 CN¥431

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥4.3b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥953m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.3%– 2.9%) = CN¥18b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥18b÷ ( 1 + 8.3%)10= CN¥8.2b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥12b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥27.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
SHSE:688146 Discounted Cash Flow May 26th 2024

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Peric Special Gases as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.954. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Peric Special Gases

Strength
  • Currently debt free.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Chemicals market.
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Chinese market.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Peric Special Gases, we've put together three pertinent aspects you should consider:

  1. Risks: Be aware that Peric Special Gases is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
  2. Future Earnings: How does 688146's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SHSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place

We've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.

• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency
• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile
• Track the Fair Value of your stocks

Try a Demo Portfolio for Free

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.