Cathay Biotech Inc.'s (SHSE:688065) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

When close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 27x, you may consider Cathay Biotech Inc. (SHSE:688065) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 53.6x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

For instance, Cathay Biotech's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Cathay Biotech

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Cathay Biotech's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Cathay Biotech's Growth Trending?

Cathay Biotech's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 18% decrease to the company's bottom line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 35% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 36% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Cathay Biotech is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Cathay Biotech's P/E

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Cathay Biotech currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Cathay Biotech you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Cathay Biotech, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.