More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Lily Group Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603823) Shares After Tumbling 28%

Lily Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603823) shares have retraced a considerable 28% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 11% share price drop.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Lily Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 29.2x is worth a mention when the median P/E in China is similar at about 30x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Lily Group hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Lily Group

Keen to find out how analysts think Lily Group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

Lily Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 11%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 52% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the lone analyst covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 13% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 37% growth , the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

In light of this, it's curious that Lily Group's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Lily Group's plummeting stock price has brought its P/E right back to the rest of the market. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Lily Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with Lily Group (including 1 which is potentially serious).

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Lily Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com