There's Reason For Concern Over Cowealth Medical China Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:603122) Massive 30% Price Jump

Cowealth Medical China Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603122) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 30% gain in the last month alone. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

Since its price has surged higher, you could be forgiven for thinking Cowealth Medical ChinaLtd is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 3.5x, considering almost half the companies in China's Healthcare industry have P/S ratios below 1.9x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

View our latest analysis for Cowealth Medical ChinaLtd

How Has Cowealth Medical ChinaLtd Performed Recently?

For instance, Cowealth Medical ChinaLtd's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Cowealth Medical ChinaLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Cowealth Medical ChinaLtd's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 16% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 21% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 14% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Cowealth Medical ChinaLtd's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What Does Cowealth Medical ChinaLtd's P/S Mean For Investors?

The large bounce in Cowealth Medical ChinaLtd's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our examination of Cowealth Medical ChinaLtd revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Cowealth Medical ChinaLtd (1 is concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.