GF Securities (SZSE:000776) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 776 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

000776 (CN¥18.48) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥17.6)

776 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	4/6

776 Stock Overview

GF Securities Co., Ltd. provides capital market services for corporations, individuals, institutional investors, financial institutions, and government clients in the People’s Republic of China.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (14.6x) is below the CN market (34.2x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 19.11% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 2.71% is not well covered by earnings

GF Securities Competitors

Guotai Junan Securities

SHSE:601211

CN¥133.2b

China Merchants Securities

SHSE:600999

CN¥115.2b

Huatai Securities

SHSE:601688

CN¥119.0b

Haitong Securities

SHSE:600837

CN¥110.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for GF Securities
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CN¥18.48
52 Week High	CN¥27.22
52 Week Low	CN¥14.21
Beta	0.73
1 Month Change	9.35%
3 Month Change	3.01%
1 Year Change	25.46%
3 Year Change	33.05%
5 Year Change	8.83%
Change since IPO	-32.87%

Shareholder Returns

	776	CN Capital Markets	CN Market
7D	-1.4%	-1.8%	1.3%
1Y	25.5%	-10.1%	-6.8%

Return vs Industry: 000776 exceeded the CN Capital Markets industry which returned -10.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 000776 exceeded the CN Market which returned -6.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 776's price volatile compared to industry and market?
776 volatility
776 Average Weekly Movement	6.2%
Capital Markets Industry Average Movement	5.9%
Market Average Movement	7.2%
10% most volatile stocks in CN Market	10.2%
10% least volatile stocks in CN Market	5.1%

Stable Share Price: 000776 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of CN stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 000776's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1991	13,174	Chuanhui Lin	https://www.gf.com.cn

GF Securities Co., Ltd. provides capital market services for corporations, individuals, institutional investors, financial institutions, and government clients in the People’s Republic of China. It operates through four segments: Investment Banking; Wealth Management; Trading and Institution; and Investment Management. The Investment Banking segment offers equity and debt finance; and financial advisory services, such as mergers and acquisition, and restructuring.

GF Securities Fundamentals Summary

How do GF Securities's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
776 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥124.19b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥9.62b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥29.15b

14.6x

P/E Ratio

4.8x

P/S Ratio

Is 776 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
776 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥29.15b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥15.69b
Gross Profit	CN¥13.45b
Other Expenses	CN¥3.84b
Earnings	CN¥9.62b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.26
Gross Margin	46.16%
Net Profit Margin	32.99%
Debt/Equity Ratio	246.8%

How did 776 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.7%

Current Dividend Yield

40%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 776 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 776?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 776. This is calculated by dividing 776's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 776's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥124.19b

776 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 776's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

776 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 776 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.4x
601211 Guotai Junan Securities	10.5x	18.2%	CN¥133.2b
600999 China Merchants Securities	12.8x	13.0%	CN¥115.2b
601688 Huatai Securities	10.4x	17.4%	CN¥119.0b
600837 Haitong Securities	11.9x	13.7%	CN¥110.6b
000776 GF Securities	14.6x	19.1%	CN¥124.2b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 000776 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x) compared to the peer average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 776's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Capital Markets Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 000776 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x) compared to the CN Capital Markets industry average (20x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 776's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

776 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	14.6x
Fair PE Ratio	20.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 000776 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 776 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 000776 (CN¥18.48) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥17.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 000776 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 000776 is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.8x)

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Future Growth

How is GF Securities forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 14 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

19.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 000776's forecast earnings growth (19.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.2%).

Earnings vs Market: 000776's earnings (19.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the CN market (23.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 000776's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 000776's revenue (15.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the CN market (17.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 000776's revenue (15.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 000776's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.2%).

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has GF Securities performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

8.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 000776 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 000776's current net profit margins (33%) are lower than last year (34.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 000776's earnings have grown by 8.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 000776's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: 000776 had negative earnings growth (-8.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Capital Markets industry average (2.4%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: 000776's Return on Equity (9.7%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is GF Securities's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 000776's short term assets (CN¥429.2B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥215.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: 000776's short term assets (CN¥429.2B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥226.9B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 000776 has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: 000776's debt to equity ratio has increased from 195% to 246.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 000776's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if 000776's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is GF Securities's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

2.71%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 000776's dividend (2.71%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (0.48%).

High Dividend: 000776's dividend (2.71%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (1.92%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 000776's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 000776's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (39.6%), 000776's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: 000776 is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.7yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Chuanhui Lin (58 yo)

1.5yrs

Tenure

CN¥1,978,000

Compensation

Mr. Chuanhui Lin serves as Chairman of the Board at GF Securities Co., Ltd. since n July 22, 2021. He serves as Executive Director at GF Securities Co., Ltd.since January 6, 2021 and serves as its General...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Chuanhui's total compensation ($USD295.18K) is about average for companies of similar size in the CN market ($USD375.12K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Chuanhui's compensation with company performance.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 000776's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.7 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 000776's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/02 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31