Founder Securities Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:601901) 27% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Those holding Founder Securities Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601901) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 27% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Looking further back, the 19% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Although its price has surged higher, there still wouldn't be many who think Founder Securities' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 32.2x is worth a mention when the median P/E in China is similar at about 30x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Recent times have been pleasing for Founder Securities as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings will be less resilient moving forward. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

View our latest analysis for Founder Securities

Keen to find out how analysts think Founder Securities' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Founder Securities' is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 14% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 54% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the two analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 19% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 41% growth , the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

In light of this, it's curious that Founder Securities' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Founder Securities' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Founder Securities' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Founder Securities, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.