We Think That There Are More Issues For Jinling Hotel Corporation (SHSE:601007) Than Just Sluggish Earnings

A lackluster earnings announcement from Jinling Hotel Corporation, Ltd. (SHSE:601007) last week didn't sink the stock price. Our analysis suggests that along with soft profit numbers, investors should be aware of some other underlying weaknesses in the numbers.

View our latest analysis for Jinling Hotel Corporation

Examining Cashflow Against Jinling Hotel Corporation's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to March 2024, Jinling Hotel Corporation recorded an accrual ratio of -0.10. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥220m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of CN¥56.9m. Jinling Hotel Corporation shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Surprisingly, given Jinling Hotel Corporation's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥27m in unusual items. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).

Our Take On Jinling Hotel Corporation's Profit Performance

In conclusion, Jinling Hotel Corporation's accrual ratio suggests its statutory earnings are of good quality, but on the other hand the profits were boosted by unusual items. Having considered these factors, we don't think Jinling Hotel Corporation's statutory profits give an overly harsh view of the business. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Jinling Hotel Corporation you should know about.

Our examination of Jinling Hotel Corporation has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.