Statutory Earnings May Not Be The Best Way To Understand Zhejiang Ming Jewelry's (SZSE:002574) True Position

Investors were disappointed with Zhejiang Ming Jewelry Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002574) recent earnings release. Our analysis found several concerning factors in the earnings report beyond the strong statutory profit number.

See our latest analysis for Zhejiang Ming Jewelry

Examining Cashflow Against Zhejiang Ming Jewelry's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to March 2024, Zhejiang Ming Jewelry had an accrual ratio of 0.70. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥1.8b despite its profit of CN¥133.9m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was CN¥41m a year ago though, so Zhejiang Ming Jewelry has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. The good news for shareholders is that Zhejiang Ming Jewelry's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Zhejiang Ming Jewelry.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Zhejiang Ming Jewelry's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥5.3m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).

Our Take On Zhejiang Ming Jewelry's Profit Performance

Summing up, Zhejiang Ming Jewelry received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Zhejiang Ming Jewelry's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Zhejiang Ming Jewelry you should know about.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.