Hynar Water Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300961) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 29% Price Plummet

Hynar Water Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300961) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 29% share price drop in the last month. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 33% share price drop.

Even after such a large drop in price, given close to half the companies operating in China's Commercial Services industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.5x, you may still consider Hynar Water Group as a stock to potentially avoid with its 3.1x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

Check out our latest analysis for Hynar Water Group

How Has Hynar Water Group Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Hynar Water Group's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Hynar Water Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

Hynar Water Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 9.7% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 13% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 29% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Hynar Water Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Despite the recent share price weakness, Hynar Water Group's P/S remains higher than most other companies in the industry. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Hynar Water Group revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Hynar Water Group, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.