Earnings Not Telling The Story For Chongqing VDL Electronics Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301121) After Shares Rise 26%

Chongqing VDL Electronics Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301121) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 17% over that time.

Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 32x, you may consider Chongqing VDL Electronics as a stock to avoid entirely with its 78.6x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Chongqing VDL Electronics has been doing very well. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Chongqing VDL Electronics

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Chongqing VDL Electronics, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Chongqing VDL Electronics?

Chongqing VDL Electronics' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 70% last year. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 83% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 38% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Chongqing VDL Electronics is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Chongqing VDL Electronics' P/E?

The strong share price surge has got Chongqing VDL Electronics' P/E rushing to great heights as well. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Chongqing VDL Electronics currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Chongqing VDL Electronics (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Chongqing VDL Electronics. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.