There's Reason For Concern Over Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002651) Massive 30% Price Jump

Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002651) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 30% after a shaky period beforehand. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 12% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, Chengdu Leejun Industrial may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 68.8x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 27x and even P/E's lower than 16x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Chengdu Leejun Industrial over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Chengdu Leejun Industrial

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Chengdu Leejun Industrial's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Chengdu Leejun Industrial's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 57%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 60% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 35% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Chengdu Leejun Industrial is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Chengdu Leejun Industrial's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Chengdu Leejun Industrial revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with Chengdu Leejun Industrial.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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