There's Reason For Concern Over Changzhou Evergreen Technology Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:001324) Massive 26% Price Jump

Changzhou Evergreen Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:001324) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 17% over that time.

Since its price has surged higher, Changzhou Evergreen Technology's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 46.1x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 36x and even P/E's below 21x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Changzhou Evergreen Technology over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Changzhou Evergreen Technology

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Changzhou Evergreen Technology, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Changzhou Evergreen Technology?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Changzhou Evergreen Technology's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 39%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 30% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 39% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Changzhou Evergreen Technology's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Changzhou Evergreen Technology's P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Changzhou Evergreen Technology currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Changzhou Evergreen Technology that you need to be mindful of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Changzhou Evergreen Technology. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.