A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Henan Thinker Automatic Equipment Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603508)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Henan Thinker Automatic EquipmentLtd fair value estimate is CN¥23.18
• With CN¥20.35 share price, Henan Thinker Automatic EquipmentLtd appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• The average premium for Henan Thinker Automatic EquipmentLtd's competitorsis currently 1,688%

How far off is Henan Thinker Automatic Equipment Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603508) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Henan Thinker Automatic EquipmentLtd

The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥333.3m	CN¥397.5m	CN¥454.5m	CN¥504.3m	CN¥547.3m	CN¥584.8m	CN¥618.1m	CN¥648.1m	CN¥675.9m	CN¥702.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 26.25%	Est @ 19.26%	Est @ 14.36%	Est @ 10.93%	Est @ 8.54%	Est @ 6.86%	Est @ 5.68%	Est @ 4.86%	Est @ 4.28%	Est @ 3.88%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.7%	CN¥307	CN¥336	CN¥354	CN¥361	CN¥361	CN¥355	CN¥345	CN¥333	CN¥319	CN¥305

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.4b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥702m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.7%– 2.9%) = CN¥13b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥13b÷ ( 1 + 8.7%)¹⁰= CN¥5.5b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥8.8b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥20.4, the company appears about fair value at a 12% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Henan Thinker Automatic EquipmentLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.021. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Henan Thinker Automatic EquipmentLtd, there are three pertinent aspects you should further examine:

1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Henan Thinker Automatic EquipmentLtd .
2. Future Earnings: How does 603508's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SHSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.