Aurora Optoelectronics Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:600666) 27% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Aurora Optoelectronics Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600666) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 27% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 24% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, when almost half of the companies in China's Machinery industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.4x, you may consider Aurora OptoelectronicsLtd as a stock not worth researching with its 9.2x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for Aurora OptoelectronicsLtd

How Aurora OptoelectronicsLtd Has Been Performing

Aurora OptoelectronicsLtd has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this respectable revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Aurora OptoelectronicsLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Aurora OptoelectronicsLtd's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 17%. Still, revenue has fallen 37% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 22% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Aurora OptoelectronicsLtd's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What Does Aurora OptoelectronicsLtd's P/S Mean For Investors?

Aurora OptoelectronicsLtd's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Aurora OptoelectronicsLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Aurora OptoelectronicsLtd that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Aurora OptoelectronicsLtd's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.