Sinomach General Machinery Science & Technology Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:600444) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon

Sinomach General Machinery Science & Technology Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:600444) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 44.3x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 27x and even P/E's below 16x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

For instance, Sinomach General Machinery Science & TechnologyLtd's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Sinomach General Machinery Science & TechnologyLtd

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How Is Sinomach General Machinery Science & TechnologyLtd's Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Sinomach General Machinery Science & TechnologyLtd's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 3.2%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 16% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 36% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Sinomach General Machinery Science & TechnologyLtd's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Sinomach General Machinery Science & TechnologyLtd's P/E?

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Sinomach General Machinery Science & TechnologyLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Sinomach General Machinery Science & TechnologyLtd (at least 1 which is significant), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Sinomach General Machinery Science & TechnologyLtd, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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