Jiangsu Rongtai Industry's (SHSE:605133) Solid Earnings May Rest On Weak Foundations

The market for Jiangsu Rongtai Industry Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:605133) stock was strong after it released a healthy earnings report last week. Despite this, our analysis suggests that there are some factors weakening the foundations of those good profit numbers.

View our latest analysis for Jiangsu Rongtai Industry

Examining Cashflow Against Jiangsu Rongtai Industry's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to March 2024, Jiangsu Rongtai Industry had an accrual ratio of 0.26. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥519m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥152.7m. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥519m, this year, indicates high risk. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥25m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).

Our Take On Jiangsu Rongtai Industry's Profit Performance

Summing up, Jiangsu Rongtai Industry received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Jiangsu Rongtai Industry's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Jiangsu Rongtai Industry (including 1 which is concerning).

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.