In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Colbún S.A. (SNSE:COLBUN) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
Check out the opportunities and risks within the CL Renewable Energy industry.
The Model
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$97.7m | US$112.8m | US$115.6m | US$120.4m | US$126.8m | US$134.5m | US$143.3m | US$153.3m | US$164.5m | US$176.7m |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 2.54% | Est @ 4.14% | Est @ 5.27% | Est @ 6.05% | Est @ 6.6% | Est @ 6.99% | Est @ 7.26% | Est @ 7.45% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 13% | US$86.2 | US$87.9 | US$79.5 | US$73.1 | US$68.0 | US$63.6 | US$59.9 | US$56.5 | US$53.5 | US$50.8 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$679m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (7.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 13%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$177m× (1 + 7.9%) ÷ (13%– 7.9%) = US$3.5b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.5b÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= US$1.0b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$1.7b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CL$83.7, the company appears about fair value at a 5.6% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Colbún as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.903. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Colbún
- Net debt to equity ratio below 40%.
- Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Chilean market.
- Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
- Annual revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Colbún, we've compiled three additional elements you should explore:
- Risks: As an example, we've found 4 warning signs for Colbún that you need to consider before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does COLBUN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SNSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SNSE:COLBUN
Undervalued with adequate balance sheet.
