Plaza S.A. Just Missed EPS By 31%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Plaza S.A. (SNSE:MALLPLAZA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 2.2% to CL$869. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of CL$277b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 31% to hit CL$23.75 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Plaza

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Plaza from seven analysts is for revenues of CL$346.6b in 2022 which, if met, would be a major 25% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 147% to CL$58.71. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CL$345.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CL$57.77 in 2022. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CL$1,446. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Plaza, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CL$1,500 and the most bearish at CL$1,317 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Plaza is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Plaza's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 25% growth to the end of 2022 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 4.7% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 13% annually. Not only are Plaza's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Plaza going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Plaza that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.