Novartis AG

SWX:NOVN Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 177.4b

Novartis Valuation

Is NOVN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NOVN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NOVN (CHF88.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF268.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NOVN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOVN?

Key metric: As NOVN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NOVN. This is calculated by dividing NOVN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NOVN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.9x
EarningsUS$11.76b
Market CapUS$198.61b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NOVN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NOVN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average35.7x
ROG Roche Holding
19.3x11.5%CHF 207.0b
DESN Dottikon ES Holding
40.7xn/aCHF 3.1b
COPN Cosmo Pharmaceuticals
14.7x17.2%CHF 957.9m
LONN Lonza Group
68.2x23.5%CHF 39.1b
NOVN Novartis
16.9x7.0%CHF 177.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOVN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the peer average (35.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NOVN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Pharmaceuticals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NOVN 16.9xIndustry Avg. 19.7xNo. of Companies11PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOVN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the European Pharmaceuticals industry average (19.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NOVN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NOVN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.9x
Fair PE Ratio28.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NOVN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NOVN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 88.72
CHF 103.05
+16.1%
9.4%CHF 122.40CHF 85.83n/a19
Dec ’25CHF 93.27
CHF 102.02
+9.4%
9.8%CHF 121.02CHF 84.86n/a19
Nov ’25CHF 95.49
CHF 101.45
+6.2%
9.4%CHF 118.72CHF 84.80n/a19
Oct ’25CHF 96.81
CHF 99.03
+2.3%
9.1%CHF 114.46CHF 85.16n/a19
Sep ’25CHF 102.12
CHF 97.78
-4.3%
9.8%CHF 113.82CHF 80.50n/a20
Aug ’25CHF 98.58
CHF 101.16
+2.6%
10.3%CHF 118.70CHF 83.96n/a20
Jul ’25CHF 96.72
CHF 99.52
+2.9%
11.3%CHF 118.94CHF 76.04n/a20
Jun ’25CHF 93.17
CHF 98.24
+5.4%
10.8%CHF 117.30CHF 75.97n/a19
May ’25CHF 89.05
CHF 98.98
+11.1%
11.2%CHF 119.11CHF 74.61n/a18
Apr ’25CHF 87.37
CHF 97.95
+12.1%
11.5%CHF 115.90CHF 74.48n/a18
Mar ’25CHF 90.14
CHF 96.18
+6.7%
11.3%CHF 112.69CHF 73.48n/a18
Feb ’25CHF 90.54
CHF 94.50
+4.4%
11.1%CHF 109.90CHF 74.57n/a18
Jan ’25CHF 84.87
CHF 90.96
+7.2%
10.2%CHF 106.89CHF 73.97n/a18
Dec ’24CHF 85.38
CHF 91.69
+7.4%
10.7%CHF 108.52CHF 72.86CHF 93.2718
Nov ’24CHF 85.21
CHF 95.13
+11.6%
10.5%CHF 111.59CHF 75.42CHF 95.4918
Oct ’24CHF 93.87
CHF 102.41
+9.1%
10.9%CHF 118.23CHF 81.87CHF 96.8118
Sep ’24CHF 89.35
CHF 100.83
+12.8%
9.8%CHF 114.09CHF 81.59CHF 102.1218
Aug ’24CHF 91.07
CHF 99.49
+9.3%
10.1%CHF 112.21CHF 80.24CHF 98.5817
Jul ’24CHF 90.00
CHF 97.84
+8.7%
9.8%CHF 110.68CHF 79.87CHF 96.7216
Jun ’24CHF 88.06
CHF 97.81
+11.1%
9.3%CHF 111.76CHF 80.71CHF 93.1719
May ’24CHF 91.13
CHF 95.31
+4.6%
9.5%CHF 108.68CHF 80.63CHF 89.0519
Apr ’24CHF 83.76
CHF 90.78
+8.4%
10.5%CHF 107.30CHF 79.17CHF 87.3720
Mar ’24CHF 78.60
CHF 92.36
+17.5%
10.6%CHF 107.98CHF 70.40CHF 90.1421
Feb ’24CHF 80.22
CHF 88.37
+10.2%
10.1%CHF 103.42CHF 69.57CHF 90.5421
Jan ’24CHF 83.59
CHF 86.89
+3.9%
11.4%CHF 103.77CHF 69.93CHF 84.8721
Dec ’23CHF 84.10
CHF 86.17
+2.5%
10.7%CHF 101.83CHF 70.18CHF 85.3821

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/17 02:09
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/17 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Novartis AG is covered by 68 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Kamla SinghAlphaValue
John EadeArgus Research Company
Fabrizio SpagnaAxia Financial Research