Lonza Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of LONN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

LONN (CHF554.4) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (CHF36.69)

Is LONN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LONN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow

Simply Wall St

CHF 36.69

Fair Value

1.4k% overvalued

Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: LONN (CHF554.4) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CHF36.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LONN is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LONN?

Key metric: As LONN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LONN. This is calculated by dividing LONN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LONN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	69.9x
Earnings	CHF 573.00m
Market Cap	CHF 40.04b

LONN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	6.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	22.8x
PEG Ratio	3.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LONN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LONN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	38.2x
SFZN Siegfried Holding	32.7x	13.0%	CHF 4.2b
BANB Bachem Holding	37x	17.8%	CHF 4.2b
TECN Tecan Group	28.4x	14.7%	CHF 2.9b
SKAN SKAN Group	54.6x	17.8%	CHF 1.8b
LONN Lonza Group	69.9x	21.0%	CHF 40.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LONN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (69.9x) compared to the peer average (38.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LONN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Life Sciences Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LONN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (69.9x) compared to the European Life Sciences industry average (36.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LONN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LONN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	69.9x
Fair PE Ratio	38.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LONN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (69.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LONN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CHF 554.40	CHF 638.15 +15.1%	7.1%	CHF 725.00	CHF 530.00	n/a	20
Jan ’26	CHF 535.80	CHF 636.90 +18.9%	6.8%	CHF 723.00	CHF 530.00	n/a	20
Dec ’25	CHF 526.40	CHF 632.71 +20.2%	7.7%	CHF 760.00	CHF 530.00	n/a	21
Nov ’25	CHF 549.00	CHF 631.85 +15.1%	7.9%	CHF 760.00	CHF 530.00	n/a	20
Oct ’25	CHF 535.20	CHF 624.14 +16.6%	6.4%	CHF 700.00	CHF 530.00	n/a	21
Sep ’25	CHF 555.60	CHF 619.41 +11.5%	7.0%	CHF 700.00	CHF 530.00	n/a	22
Aug ’25	CHF 587.40	CHF 613.55 +4.5%	8.0%	CHF 700.00	CHF 495.00	n/a	22
Jul ’25	CHF 488.40	CHF 586.00 +20.0%	9.4%	CHF 666.00	CHF 450.00	n/a	22
Jun ’25	CHF 486.40	CHF 576.86 +18.6%	12.1%	CHF 655.00	CHF 375.00	n/a	22
May ’25	CHF 510.40	CHF 566.00 +10.9%	12.1%	CHF 650.00	CHF 375.00	n/a	22
Apr ’25	CHF 540.20	CHF 556.00 +2.9%	12.8%	CHF 650.00	CHF 375.00	n/a	22
Mar ’25	CHF 465.60	CHF 508.25 +9.2%	13.3%	CHF 635.00	CHF 365.00	n/a	20
Feb ’25	CHF 427.70	CHF 495.20 +15.8%	14.0%	CHF 600.00	CHF 365.00	n/a	20
Jan ’25	CHF 353.70	CHF 465.16 +31.5%	18.5%	CHF 600.00	CHF 270.00	CHF 535.80	19
Dec ’24	CHF 334.80	CHF 513.11 +53.3%	21.9%	CHF 705.00	CHF 365.00	CHF 526.40	19
Nov ’24	CHF 318.60	CHF 531.26 +66.7%	20.8%	CHF 705.00	CHF 365.00	CHF 549.00	19
Oct ’24	CHF 425.60	CHF 627.41 +47.4%	8.5%	CHF 705.00	CHF 514.00	CHF 535.20	17
Sep ’24	CHF 492.50	CHF 629.83 +27.9%	7.3%	CHF 705.00	CHF 530.00	CHF 555.60	18
Aug ’24	CHF 505.20	CHF 647.06 +28.1%	6.9%	CHF 705.00	CHF 570.00	CHF 587.40	18
Jul ’24	CHF 533.40	CHF 679.24 +27.3%	11.1%	CHF 900.00	CHF 580.00	CHF 488.40	17
Jun ’24	CHF 575.80	CHF 659.84 +14.6%	16.9%	CHF 900.00	CHF 315.05	CHF 486.40	18
May ’24	CHF 553.80	CHF 663.36 +19.8%	17.1%	CHF 900.00	CHF 315.05	CHF 510.40	17
Apr ’24	CHF 547.40	CHF 662.77 +21.1%	17.1%	CHF 900.00	CHF 315.05	CHF 540.20	17
Mar ’24	CHF 559.60	CHF 662.89 +18.5%	16.6%	CHF 900.00	CHF 315.05	CHF 465.60	18
Feb ’24	CHF 521.00	CHF 659.65 +26.6%	18.0%	CHF 935.00	CHF 315.05	CHF 427.70	17
Jan ’24	CHF 453.10	CHF 680.88 +50.3%	19.4%	CHF 965.00	CHF 315.05	CHF 353.70	16

Analyst Price Target

Consensus Narrative from 20 Analysts

CHF 638.15

Fair Value

13.1% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/01/20 02:48
End of Day Share Price	2025/01/17 00:00
Earnings	2024/06/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Lonza Group AG is covered by 49 analysts. 22 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Martin Schnee	AlphaValue
Volker Bosse	Baader Helvea Equity Research
Charles Pitman-King	Barclays